Academy Awards 2010: Nomination Predictions

Tuesday is the day the nominations come out. As per last year, here are my predictions for this year's nominations. I don't think there are too many surprises, this year. Most of the winners will likely be as they should - except where the huge Avatar field distorts the selections.

Original Screenplay
James Cameron - Avatar
Pedro Almodovar - Broken Embraces
Nancy Myers - It's Complicated
Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

will win: James Cameron, Avatar
should win: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker

Adapted Screenplay
Nick Hornby - An Education
Wes Anderson - Fantastic Mr. Fox
Joe Penhall - The Road
Geoffrey Fletcher - Precious
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air

will win: Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
should win: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Directing
James Cameron - Avatar
Lone Scherfig - An Education
Wes Anderson - Fantastic Mr. Fox
Katheryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
The Cohen Brothers - A Serious Man

will win: James Cameron, Avatar
should win: Katheryn Begelow, The Hurt Locker

Supporting Actress
Zoey Saldana - Avatar
Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Mo'Nique - Precious
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air

will win: Mo'Nique, Precious
should win: Mo'Nique, Precious

Supporting Actor
Peter Sarsgaard - An Education
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
Stanley Tucci - Julie and Julia
Rupert Friend - The Young Victoria

will win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
should win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Actress
Hillary Swank - Amelia
Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces
Meryl Streep - Julie and Julia
Carie Mulligan - An Education
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria

will win - Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
should win - Carie Mulligan, An Education

Best Actor
Sam Rockwell - Moon
Viggo Mortensen - The Road
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes
George Clooney - Up in the Air

will win - George Clooney, Up in the Air
should win - Colin Firth, A Single Man

Best Film

With ten pictures to choose from this year, this could be a wide-open, zany category. Here's my shot at the ten we're most likely to see.

Avatar
An Education
A Serious Man
Broken Embraces
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Road
The Young Victoria
Up In the Air

will win: Avatar
should win: Up in the Air